Well congratulations Boston Celtics. You have resoundingly announced your presence to the rest of the NBA. The recent stretch of success has been fun, and you are winning games the right way, Celtics. But we still haven’t had our Thanksgiving binges yet, and no one is going to kick back and expect a win against you anymore.
The Dallas Mavericks sure aren’t. They’re on a roll too… and they’re right there with the Celtics numbers-wise. Their offensive ratings are nearly identical and Dallas’ 98.4 defensive rating isn’t that far off of Boston’s 94.2.
I worry about a team coming back home after a pair of wins like that. There is a tendency for the home team to let down in situations like this…. which brings me to tonight’s game plan.
1: Come out strong
Dallas is 4-2 on the road… so they’re not afraid. They’re rolling and they’ll gladly take your slow start and shove it down your throat. And unlike the dysfunctional Rockets, the Mavs aren’t going to be in any hurry to give that lead away. I know this seems basic, but it’s pretty important to have the starters, whichever iteration is out there (more on that in a minute) to come out focused and not get caught up in the hype of their win streak.
2: Go small!
Spread out the Mavs front line of Dirk Nowitzki and ZaZa Pachulia with shooters. Maybe the Celtics want to make an early substitution with Kelly Olynyk in for Amir Johnson. Maybe they use a lot more Jonas Jerebko. Whatever they need to do, they need to take advantage of their bigs’ lack of mobility. Nowitzki is one of the all time greats, but he’s a defensive liability at this point. Open things up and test that Mavs’ perimeter D.
2A: Start Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk
I like starting Isaiah Thomas against a horrible Rockets defense. I love starting Bradley along with Marcus Smart against the Devin Harris/Deron Williams backcourt. Those guys haven’t faced that level of defense all season long… so they’ll turn it over. That also matches up Isaiah Thomas against JJ Barea, so he can get a lot more minutes against a guy his size.
I like Smart, Bradley, Crowder, Olynyk and Sullinger. We get the matchup I just discussed, then Crowder on Chandler Parsons, and Olynyk and Sullinger to help spread out their bigs. As our friends at CelticsBlog pointed out today, the Sullinger/Olynyk pairing has the second best net rating when it comes to combinations of bigs… and the Amir Johnson/Jonas Jerebko combo has the third best (Olynyk/Jerebko is #1). Considering those things, I love Sully/Olynyk against their bigs than Johnson/Jerebko/Thomas against Dallas’ bench. Bonus: It puts Amir Johnson in there defensively to deal with Dwight Powell… who has been really productive off the bench for Dallas.
3: Don’t let Pachulia get under your skin
My only trepidation in my “start Olynyk” plan is that he’d have to take on notorious pain in the ass ZaZa Pachulia. He’s having a career year so far in Dallas, so he needs to be defended. And beyond that, he’ll flop and flail and pull any cheap trick in the book to piss you off. So the Celtics need to make him work really hard on D try to affect his offense… and then learn to ignore his histrionics. There’s never a game involving Pachulia that I don’t want to fight him… but the Celtics are going to have to channel that rage elsewhere.
The Mavs are enjoying a lot of success lately. But it needs to be noted that the current four game winning streak involves wins against the Clippers, Lakers, Rockets, and 76’ers. That’s one decent team, one grease fire that led to a coach being fired in November, and 2 of the worst teams in the sport. They’re riding high, but the Celtics can put them in their place if they do these four things.
