Are the Celtics Playing Evan Turner Too Much?

With the Celtics down 2-0, the team is searching for answers as they head into game three tonight in Boston. Brad Stevens hinted at possible starting lineup changes heading into game three, and he may elect to switch things up. While it is unclear what adjustments will be made, the consensus among Celtics fans is that Evan Turner’s playing time should be cut, perhaps in favor of Isaiah Thomas or Marcus Smart.

Turner is averaging a team high 33.8 minutes per game through two playoff games, despite shooting just 30% from the field. That’s a slight uptick in playing time after averaging 30.7 minutes per game after the all-star break and 27.6 minutes per game for the year. If it were up to Celtics fans, the additional minutes would go to Isaiah Thomas, and there is evidence to support playing Thomas more. Thomas’ offensive rating through the first two games (111.1) leads the team by a significant margin. Turner’s, on the other hand, is more than 10 points per 100 possessions worse (100.7).

So why has Brad Stevens elected to play a guy shooting 30% from the field so many minutes through the first two games? The short answer is the Cs coach has been forced to weigh the pros and cons.

Why Evan Turner Needs to Play vs Cleveland

Other than the obvious disparity in talent level between the two teams, which is out of the Celtics control until the offseason, the difference through the first two games has been rebounding. Cleveland’s bigs, and sometimes guards, have outmuscled the Celtics, creating second shot opportunities for an already efficient offense. These are extra possessions the Celtics simply cannot afford to give up with such a small margin for error already. Jae Crowder addressed the issue when asked what the Celtics would have to do to pull out a win in game 3:

“We know exactly what we need to do. Take away their offensive rebounds and we win the game, I feel like,” Crowder said.

The Cavs have averaged 13.5 offensive rebounds over the first two games. Thompson alone has nine over that stretch. He’s often reached over what there’s been of a Celtics wall for those boards.

“They’re sitting in the paint,” Crowder said of Thompson and Mozgov.

The Cavaliers 33.8% offensive rebound rate leads all playoff teams, and would have been the top rate in the regular season by a fairly significant margin. The Cs struggles on the boards have been well documented, and while in some cases there is little they can do to match up with Tristan Thompson’s athleticism or Timofey Mozgov’s size, Stevens and the players have the difficult task of limiting the Cavs on the glass if they hope to win a game or two in Boston.

Stevens adjustment to the Cavs size has been playing bigger lineups. That means more playing time for Evan Turner, and deservedly so. Turner is averaging a team high 9.5 rebounds per game through the first two games while no other Celtics player averages more than five.

But raw numbers rarely tell the full story, so let’s dig a little deeper to see how the Cs are performing on the boards with Turner on the court. As I noted above, the Cavs have a 33.8% offensive rebound rate for the series. That number drops down to a more manageable 27.6% with Evan Turner on the court. When Turner is off the court, however, the Cavs offensive rebound rate spikes to 50%. That means the Cavs are grabbing half of their misses with Turner on the bench.

Why does Turner have such a profound impact on the boards? To start, he is a very good rebounder for his position, but his presence is especially felt in this series because of the Cavs shot selection. Cleveland has averaged 30 three point attempts in the first two games (third among playoff teams) creating long rebound opportunities. When Turner has been on the floor, he has helped scoop up some of those long rebounds and limit Cleveland on the glass.

The impact of Cleveland’s offensive rebounding has been the difference in the series. With the Celtics playing a more talented team, each possession matters. The Celtics will struggle to win any game in which they hand extra possessions to a prolific offense like the Cavs. While Turner does not completely solve the problem, he certainly helps. As Chuck pointed out in this morning’s dump, a big part of the Celtics rebounding issues arises when the Cavs force the Cs to rotate, leaving them out of position for rebounds.

The argument could be made in support of the Celtics going with Thomas and a bunch of floor spacers to simply try to outscore Cleveland, but that seems like an unlikely outcome.

Brad Stevens trusts Evan Turner. Despite his poor shooting, Turner is one of the few Celtics players who is capable of handling the basketball. There is a misconception that because both Thomas and Turner are “point guards,” Turner is the natural guy to bench for Thomas to get more minutes. This has not been true since Thomas has come over to Boston. The only player Thomas has shared the floor more with has been Jae Crowder, and Thomas and Turner lineups are +8.3 points per 100 possessions against opponents this season. Stevens clearly likes having multiple guys on the floor with the ability to create. It allows the Celtics to go from running a pick and roll on one side of the floor, to quickly swinging the ball and running another on the other side, making the defense work.

Criticisms of Turner

The criticisms of Turner’s game are valid. He does not space the floor well at all, and he typically makes one or two turnovers a game that are inexplicable. In this series, however, Turner’s rebounding and ball handling are irreplaceable, and as long as he continues to take care of the ball (just 3 turnovers combined in the first two games), his uptick in playing time is warranted, in my opinion.

That being said, the problems Evan Turner has on the court speak to a larger problem the Celtics have as a team. Bill Simmons, avid Celtics fan, often talks about what guys bring to the table, and, likewise, what they take off the table with their presence on the court. The current cast of Celtics all bring something to the table, but too many take something significant off the table at the same time, leaving Brad Stevens to weigh the pros and cons of having that player on the court.

Turner is the perfect example of this idea. His ball handling and rebounding are needed, especially against Cleveland, but his inability to space the floor has hurt the Celtics all season. That trend is supported by Turner’s numbers through two playoff games. According to Basketball Reference, the Celtics have a 100.8 offensive rating with Turner on the court, compared to a 110.7 rating with Turner on the bench. Those numbers are supported by Turner’s regular season statistics as well, meaning there is strong evidence over a rather large sample size that the Celtics would be better off on the offensive end with Turner on the bench in game 3.

However, Stevens must weigh that impact with the impact Turner has had on the defensive end, which includes rebounding, in this series. Basketball reference has the Celtics defensive rating with Turner on the court at 109.3 for the series, which is not an impressive number until you compare it to the 126.8 defensive rating the Celtics have with Turner on the bench. Two games is a small sample size, but that’s all the coaching staff has to work with in making adjustments for game 3.

My solution, which is far from perfect, would be to play Turner and Thomas together for significant minutes. The Cs can add either Marcus Smart or Avery Bradley to the backcourt, or go big with Turner at shooting guard and Jae Crowder at small forward. A lineup of Thomas, Turner, Crowder, Olynyk and Zeller had a brief four minute run in the second half of game two and was very successful. That’s the type of lineup I would go with for a larger chunk of game 3.