Dividing Minutes between the Celtics Frontcourt

Brad Stevens is going to have some difficult decisions to make regarding his frontcourt rotations this season. The Celtics have four players (five if you include Jeff Green) who currently deserve significant minutes and Vitor Faverani is on his way back from injury, and rookie Dwight Powell who will most likely spend the majority of the season in the D-league.

Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk are the Celtics young building blocks up front, and the two have both played well to start the season. Tyler Zeller is another young big who has impressed in his time as a Celtic thus far. To start the year, Zeller is 25/30 from the floor. Finally, Brandon Bass is the only veteran presence in the Celtics frontcourt. Bass is a proven commodity who has been with the team since 2011. Bass finished last night with a season high 23 points on 9 of 13 shooting, playing a total of 32 minutes to lead all Celtics frontcourt players.

Brad Stevens is struggling to divide the 96 total frontcourt minutes among these four players, as all have made their cases for playing time. Many believe Zeller should see more playing time. That is easier said than done. If you want Zeller to get more minutes, who are you taking out? Would you play Jeff Green only at small forward to leave more minutes to divide between the four bigs, even if Green can create significant mismatches playing the four? These are not easy questions to answer, and they will become even harder with the return of Faverani. Let’s take a look at how Brad Stevens has divided the minutes, on average, so far, and then discuss who should play.

How the Minutes Have Been Divided Thus Far

Brad Stevens has 96 minutes to work with between his two post positions. So far, Jared Sullinger is playing 30 minutes per game, Olynyk 26 minutes per game, Bass 18 minutes, and Zeller 14 minutes. The remaining minutes have been taken up by moving Jeff Green to the power forward position.

All four post players have been effective in their minutes. Sullinger is arguably the Celtics most important player not named Rajon Rondo. Olynyk is averaging over 12 points per game while shooting 58% from the floor, and is currently the Celtics best three point shooter at 44%. Bass is one of the few proven players Boston has. The Celtics know exactly what they will get each time Bass is on the floor, and he has done well with his minutes this year. Zeller has been the surprise, but he has certainly made his case to play as well. Jeff Green is effective at the 4 spot for short periods of time because he can create mismatches. It is difficult for most power forwards to stay with someone as athletic as Green. Faverani will get minutes at some point this year, as the Celtics would be wise to see what they have in the Brazilian big man. While showing flashes last season, Faverani remains an unknown for the most part.

How Should the Minutes Be Divided

First off, I do not think we will be seeing too much of Jeff Green at the 4. The Celtics are deep in the frontcourt and the backcourt, but they are not particularly deep on the wing. Green will play the majority of the minutes at small forward, with Evan Turner and other 3 guard lineups making up the difference, especially with the post players playing so effectively.

Jared Sullinger is locked in at 30-32 minutes a game, and this may not even be enough. The Celtics offense scores 11 more points per 100 possessions with Sullinger on the floor than with him off, while opponents score 5 less per 100 possessions with Sully on the floor. Both of these stats lead the team. Remember, this is a guy who shot the lights out in the preseason but has struggled so far this year. If he could up his 3 point percentage to somewhere in the mid-30s, his production could increase quite a bit more. So let’s pencil Sullinger in for his average of 30 minutes, although I would not be surprised to see those minutes increase slightly.

Kelly Olynyk has taken significant strides in his development this season, as many expected he would. He has been an offensive weapon for the Celtics with his outside shooting, and has shown the ability to shot-fake and drive to the basket. He may be averaging more minutes if it were not for foul trouble in a few games. Saying this, I expect Olynyk to get into foul trouble due to his current lack of strength. Until he gets stronger, expect opposing teams to go right at him to start games. Furthermore, Zeller provides a little bit more rim protection than Olynyk. Let’s keep Kelly around his average of 25 minutes as well, giving us a total of 55 minutes between the starting frontcourt.

If the remaining minutes were split down the middle, Bass and Zeller would each get around 20 minutes per game, maybe less if Green plays the 4 for a stretch of the game. However, I’m in favor of giving a few more minutes to Zeller over Bass. Here’s why.

Zeller provides an inside presence on both ends of the floor that no one else on the Celtics roster can replicate. Offensively, he fits this Celtics team like a glove. He runs the floor very well for a big, and rolls hard to the rim. Olynyk and Bass are primarily pick and pop guys, while Sullinger does a little bit of both. It is important to have a guy on the floor that can roll hard to the rim off the pick and roll. The defense will have to respect Zeller rolling and collapse, opening up shots for shooters. If the defense fails to collapse, Rajon Rondo will hit Zeller on the roll for an easy 2 or a foul, as he has done numerous times this year.

While Zeller is not an elite rim protector, he is the closest thing Boston has to one. Brandon Bass’ athletic ability makes him a good defender, but he simply cannot protect the rim the same way Zeller can with his size. Defense is becoming more and more important for a Celtics team that has struggled on that end of the court so far. A few more minutes of rim protection could be the difference in the game.

I’d like to see the Celtics go with a Sullinger Zeller pairing more often, as this lineup has been very effective thus far. As the season moves along, I would not be surprised to see Zeller getting closer to 20 minutes per game at the expense of Bass and Olynyk.

These are the types of difficult decisions a coach has to make. Certainly, Zeller and Bass both deserve more minutes based on their play, but at whose expense? Many people (myself included) would like to see Green play the 4 spot more, but this means playing 1 of the post players less and playing a guy like Evan Turner more at the 3. I’d rather Zeller or Bass be on the court than Turner, so Green stays at the 3 for the most part. Zeller’s skills are the most unique of the bench, and that is why I think he deserves more minutes. But I’m not the one who has to tell Brandon Bass, an established veteran, why he is playing 10-15 minutes less than he did last year when he has been an effective player in his role. Stevens faces a lot of tough decisions regarding the frontcourt, especially when Faverani comes back. Something will have to give, and it will be very interesting to see whose minutes take a fall.