Ray Allen
Last Year's Stats: 36.4 mpg, 18.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.8 apg, 0.9 spg, fg% 48 (40.9% 3pt), FT% 95.2
Projected Stats:
John: 32.1 mpg, 17.4 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 3.0 apg, 0.8 spg, fg% 49 (41.5% 3pt), FT% 95
Chuck: 34 mpg, 18.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.0 spg, fg% 49 (41.1% 3 FG), FT% 95.3
What will help him the most?
John: A stronger bench. Ray won't need to be log young-guy minutes anymore. He's 54th All-Time in minutes played, so at some point, he'll need the minutes dialed back. That point is now, and Ray will respond by nearly matching most of his stats while playing less. Then, when the playoffs roll around, he'll have more gas to play the bigger minutes.
Chuck: His contract status. Ray is an unrestricted free agent at the end of next season, and it's been scientifically proven that guys play better when cash is on the line. That's why I projected tiny improvements in every statistical category.
What will hurt him the most?
John: Age. Ray could be a guy who plays until he's 40, but even if he does, he won't be "Ray Allen" the whole time. Look at Ray like a classic car. Sometimes, no matter how well it's maintained, something is going to go wrong. Now... that meticulous conditioning could mean the problems are minor, but they will be problems nonetheless. Will this be the year we really start to see those problems?
Chuck: Even though I don't think it will be a major factor, I have to go with age. At some point, Father Time catches up to us all. But like John stated above, Ray has been working his ass off this off-season. I don't expect to see a major drop in his scoring/shooting percentages but nagging injuries could force him to miss a few more games.
Will he be an All Star?
John: No, not this year. I think he'll have good numbers and he'll be in the discussion of reserves... but I think this year it goes to someone else unless a couple of guys back out because of injuries.
Chuck: No. The Celtics have too many stars on this team, and Ray is not a guy to demand the ball and/or attention.
Burning Question: How much longer can Ray keep this up?
John: I think Ray can keep playing for another few years. The guy is a workout freak. And he's meticulous about every detail about his life. He'll keep playing at a high level for a while. But over the next couple of years, we'll probably start to see a little bit more of a decline. Maybe a little more spotting up than we're used to. Maybe a couple fewer drives to the hole. At some point, even Ray's body will say "enough is enough."
Chuck: He's got a few more years as a starter, and then a few more as a quality reserve. If Reggie Miller can play until he's nearly 40, there's no reason to thank Ray Allen can't do the same.
Previous Player Projections: Tony Allen | Brian Scalabrine | Rajon Rondo
